Champion of Poker

Following on from part one then with this example, if his handicapping system showed that a horse in a certain race was an 11-1 chance (I have selected this price because it represents a gut-shot draw), he would not bet if he could only obtain 12-1 or 13-1 with a bookmaker or on the betting exchange.

His reasons are because the information that goes into the odds compilation is incomplete and the 11-1 is only an estimate and could therefore be inaccurate. This means that the price of 12 or 13-1 may be insufficient to provide him with an overlay.

This problem of incomplete information also applies to poker because we cannot see our opponents cards (at least I never get to see them). On many occasions, we simply do not know how much it will cost us to play on or how much more money will subsequently enter the pot.

Imagine for a minute that you are seated in the big blind with a hand like 7-5 in a multi-way un-raised pot. The flop comes A-6-3 rainbow. The small blind bets out and it is now on you. Let us say there were four limpers and the small blind called as well. The pot is now offering you 7-1 and it is 11-1 to hit your hand. This is a very complex problem because all sorts of factors are at work here.

1. Will my hand win the pot if it improves.
2. My call will not close the betting.
3. Are my opponents capable of paying me off if I hit the hand?
4. My hand could get counterfeited and I could end up splitting the pot with another straight.
5. What types of players are to act after me?
6. Is the pot raised or not.
7. Does the flop texture indicate that a call will likely get raised?

The list could go on, it is fair to say that no player in the world has the ability to accurately calculate implied odds in limit Texas Hold’em on a consistent basis especially in complex scenarios and especially in speeded up internet play. In this problem, I would take a leaf out of my friends book and refuse to call unless I could be fairly certain of a substantial overlay. The two most important things to consider in this situation are.

1. How likely am I to get raised if I call
2. Will the pot reach a level that is substantially more than the minimum 11 small bets that I currently need for the play to break even.

The closer you are in your estimation, the better you will be. No two situations are the same because no two table line ups are the same. As always, there is no substitute for table awareness. Unfortunately, this means a lot of hard work but whoever said poker was easy. But that is the intense fascination with the game and I for one love it.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson